Engaging discussion. Thanks.
One of Wilson's most influential advisors, 'the Colonel', certainly was amongst the prime movers during that time, and one extra shot of good scotch may have changed history. Given the enormous potential 'butterfly effect' even one pivotal individual can introduce in such desperate political clashes […] Gen. Smedley Butler was clearly unpredictable and did change history by revealing 'The Banker's Plot'. It is these kind of pivotal influences, and how they may concatenate or interfere mutually and with others, that strikes me as central to my general thesis.
Bear in mind the very long time frame of your example and the impacts that even very small changes in initial conditions could have metastasized over that long time frame given we are referring to population growth which is itself an exponential phenomenon.
Again I reiterate my point that Bitcoin as a functioning blockchain has only existed for a decade thus far and probably less than a decade more to go before the completion of the critical (de-)adoption/maturation phase of Bitcoin’s role in the world domination plan I have posited.
Given BTCs relatively low numbers of influential individuals compared to WWII, those individual rogue factors become more affective of predictability.
AFAICS, there’s nothing they (nor myself as potentially one of the “influential individuals”) can do this late in the game to change what I posit is going to occur on May 14, 2020 at the halving event. The Schelling point and Nash equilibrium (c.f. also, also and the Rogue Wave thread) is a “poison pill” that Satoshi designed into his longest chain rule for proof-of-work, which prevents anyone from defecting. There is only one logical choice for everyone, which is precisely a stable Nash equilibrium.
I could elaborate extensively on why influential actors have no economic degrees-of-freedom to deviate from the Nash equilibrium. Perhaps you could state some scenarios and I will attempt to respond to each in detail. For example, presume an influential actor wanted to somehow profit on the prior knowledge that the powers-that-be are going to drive the Bitcoin price skyhigh before the halving and then initiate the legacy Bitcoin restoration (aka the SegWit “anyone can spend” donations taking). How could they do so in a way that disrupts the plan or the plan’s economic and thus pricing effects? AFAICS, they can’t. If there was a way, I might be trying to do it. For example, I could approach the trilema.com dude (former DAO attacker) who self-reported having more than 0.5 million Bitcoins if I had a plan which would earn him more profit than participating in the SegWit booty taking (and he is also the original source of the logic for the eventual SegWit attack scenario).
Proof-of-work is decentralized and thus very difficult to disrupt. And its game theory prevents defection.
If you contemplated a very significant government might crackdown on Bitcoin right as they are trying to drive the price up before the halving, I would respond that Trump tried to get us out of Afghanistan but the powers-that-be arranged a false flag to keep our military committed there. There’s so much well defined topological order in the Bitcoin price chart because there’s so much low entropy control of the major factors, e.g. the very significant halving event which drives PlanB’s stock-to-flows model valuation is preprogrammed to occur every 4 years.
The downside of that is as you pointed out and I agreed with earlier, that longer-term Bitcoin is not antifragile because it does not tolerate forks. It is very low entropy because requires that one-longest-chain-to-rule-them-all total order. Dynamic systems with irreversible thermodynamics (i.e. past distinct from the future) require the existence of partial orders. This is why fiat money and the business cycle is so egregiously boom & bust. Before the formation of Federal Reserve in 1913, the economy had more frequent busts but those busts will not compare to the Great Depression or the Mother of All Busts coming circa ~2028 – 2032. The central banks kicked the can of the total order of debt growth far beyond any reasonable level. Totally destroyed the future of Western civilization.
I am a crappy chess player.
I’m also not an exceptional chess player presumably because it requires precisely computing a multitude of scenarios rapidly. I mean 6D conceptual “chess” (the figurative meaning of ‘chess’), wherein there’s perhaps less relevant permutations but more complexity of data to filter through to find the relevant, which is how I defined genius. My mind is more intuitive and visually mathematical and not exceptionally mechanically computational nor exceptional deep store of detailed memory. To overcome this, I have to be exceptional at choosing what to focus on.
Apologies if my prior post came across as hubris. I’m just a bit frustrated with not being able to impart all the details I what I have formulated in my mind (due to lacking time to communicate and apparently the volume of communication which would be required) and then being dismissed with the typical mayonnaise logic of “everything is random” so it is hopeless to try to unveil deterministic chaos.
In my prior post I stated one milestone which if not reached would cause me to significantly lower the likelihood of a $1 million price in 2020. I might have a confirmation bias due to my world view. Maybe Bitcoin was created by a lone person in their garage and all the key design decisions such as a 4 year discontinuous halving cycle were just pulled out Satoshi’s arse. Lol.
I once fired and rehired a guy seven times in one day. Do not count on me for such a role LOL.
I finally realized I have a similar weakness. I gave up trying to hire and manage anyone. Anyone smart enough to really push the needle for me, also is too smart for me to manage them.
I do better when I just interact with those managing their own independent project where synergies naturally arise.
I would not make that claim about me, but I am convinced that basic principles of physics render institutional power unsustainable, and utter freedom inevitable for our species. Decentralization is the cutting edge of all technological advance, because it increases the efficiency of tech.
I’m also hoping for this. Otherwise I would have probably already swallowed a FUCKITALL pill. Devil in the details perhaps. I have been working on many technological details. Presumably others are also.
Every tech advance is an advance in decentralization, although there is a an ever decreasing lag time to disperse that tech.
I was also thinking about that today w.r.t. to this ZH article:
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/rise-tech-totalitarianism
RE: McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price