RE: The Real Bitcoin: which Bitcoin fork will win?

UPDATE: Given the hashrate signaling for SegWit is at 76% and climbing fast, it appears unlikely that a contentious fork will occur on August 1.

I am not running a Real Bitcoin Foundation (aka TRB) full node, so I do not know if that legacy Bitcoin chain has forked off already, but I doubt it because afaik signaling on the nVersion field of the block header is not incompatible with the legacy Bitcoin transactions. EDIT: TRB will accept SegWit blocks but SegWit transactions are spendable by anyone! I sourced that link on Trilema. I verified that Satoshi’s Bitcoin indeed enables anyone to spend P2SH.

BTC spent with a SegWit transaction will be stolen by the first miner who can put a spend transaction in a block of the TRB (legacy Bitcoin) chain.

It appears that any HF will only begin once there are recognizable SegWit transactions in a block, which the Real Bitcoin will refuse to mine on. Note I read that the format of a SegWit transaction is such that it can’t be detected until it is spent.

So it appears to me we will get a significant rise in the BTC price after August 1 (perhaps to $4000+?) which will be pushed by the enthusiasm about the hashrate support for SegWit and perhaps also people selling BCC to buy BTC creating more buying demand.

And then August 23 or so, I expect the SegWit chain to fork off from the minority hashrate Real Bitcoin one, and Bitcoin kingpin Mircea Popescu will begin selling the SegWit BTC and buying the Real BTC gradually driving the price of the former down and the latter up and then the hashrate will gradually switch over as well. Charlie Shrem (@charlieshrem) is mocking Mircea Popescu’s statement, “As far as anyone will be able to perceive, miners simply left”.

Afaik, to spend your BTC on the SegWit fork so that it can not be replayed on the legacy Bitcoin will require either mixing with some transactions from blocks that derived from a block containing a SegWit transaction, but (this probably does not scale well and) these can not begin until August 23. Before then, the other way is to attempt to double-spend to yourself on the SegWit fork and legacy Bitcoin over and over until it happens. You’ll need to import your private keys into separate wallets for each fork.

Note we might see altcoins initially dropped as BTC is rising, then the altcoins may catch up. As the HF chaos hits August 23 or so, we might see LTC skyrocket as the community realizes SegWit is dead on Bitcoin and Litecoin already has SegWit. Especially if BCC is defeated so that Jihan Wu (Bitmain) only has Litecoin remaining as their main scaling solution altcoin.

But we might see a collapse in all crypto perhaps after moving up to a peak before everyone realizes SegWit is fucked. Another crypto winter may be upon us after this blow off top ends with theft of the SegWit transactions.

EDIT:

What's your time frame for that?

Difficult to say how long after Aug 23 it will take for there to be enough SegWit transactions to steal, so that miners break away from SegWit chain and mine on real bitcoin chain.