Good day Steemians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
So in previous analyses we talked about BTC/USD correcting itself to the 0.618 fibonaci ratio which happened in September. It was until October that bitcoin made a 40%+ jump upwards which could have resulted in the next upward wave for bitcoin. However as we know today this did not happen. One reason might have been the very bullish price movement since the end of 2018. Only a half a year later bitcoin made over 300% gains which seems to have been "too much" in a too short period of time for this stage of the long term cycle.
By November we saw a drop of 35% to about 6.300$ and since then the price has struggled to stay above this level. To me this indicates that the price of bitcoin could drop to a low of about 5.600$ coinciding with the fibonaci ratio of 0.382 which is another marker for BTC/USD price corrections. We also have support coming from April 2019 and November 2018 which will probably be enough for the price to hold.
After this "final" correction which will translate to about a 20% loss I would expect the price to move upwards again. As such, this would mark the end of the first subwave for bitcoin on its way to higher levels. Prices should be at 10.000$+ in the next 3-5 months.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!