Ben Hunt has a thought-provoking post at EpsilonTheory.com looking into an open secret — that the Chinese government’s statistics about the Covid-19 case numbers are bogus, we’re being lied to.
Hunt argues that the Chinese numbers are not only bogus, they’re manufactured bogus using an incorrect mathematical formula.
All epidemics – before they are brought under control – take the form of a green line, an exponential function of some sort. It is impossible for them to take the form of a blue line, a quadratic or even cubic function of some sort. This is what the R-0 metric of basic reproduction rate means, and if – as the WHO has been telling us from the outset – the nCov2019 R-0 is >2, then the propagation rate must be described by a pretty steep exponential curve. As the kids would say, it’s just math.
I believe that the Chinese government is massively under-reporting infection data in the pandemic regions of Hubei and Zhejiang provinces.
More importantly, I also believe that Chinese epidemic-fighting policy – just like American war-fighting policy in the Vietnam War – is now being driven by the narrative requirement to find and count the “right number” of coronavirus casualties.
Right after stories came out that Covid-19 had its epicenter at a “wet market” in Wuhan, there were a spate of stories that it had actually been started by an accidental release of the virus from the Wuhan Center for Disease Control & Prevention (aka “bioweapons lab”) also in Wuhan. These were quickly dismissed as conspiracy theories. No country wants to even talk about the possible use of bioweapons. Look how suggestions of the American use of bioweapons during the Korean War were attacked. Controlling the narrative continues to be effective. But we’re starting to see reports that those who’ve been infected and recovered can contract the disease a second time. Why aren’t their bodies producing antibodies as people with viral infections usually do? What makes this virus so atypical in that regard? The abstract of a recent research paper about the possible laboratory origin of the virus is available here.
Unrelated to anything here, my wife and I re-watched The Great Escape last night and I then read up on the history of the actual escape that inspired the semi-fictionalized movie. Then started down the rabbit hole of links to articles about other POW escapes until I eventually stumbled onto the fascinating story of Joseph Beyrle, the only man to have served during WW2 with both the United States Army and the Soviet Red Army.
Today’s semi-randomized #steembasicincome sponsorships (1 unit each):
@drumoperator, @goldendawne
Post Beneficiaries:
5% - @steemchiller
5% - @whatsup
pics from the EpsilonTheory article