Latest updates from Martin Armstrong’s Socrates is calling for Bitcoin to make lower lows than the close on April 6 of $7037. His system isn’t factoring the intraday low on for example Kraken of $58xx. So we’re thinking of BTC revisiting the $6xxx level one more time possibly. Socrates remains bearish on the Weekly Level, but on the Monthly Level it has turned bullish again and issued a buy signal but with caution. Also Socrates has the $3505 level as the support trendline of doom, same as what I wrote about. So it seems Socrates agrees with our outlook.
I was going to note that the 2011 decline from the 2011 peak was more significant than the decline thus far, so if we were modeling the current decline as correlated to the peak of 2011, instead of one of the flag patterns before the peak of the funnel in 2011, then we could see this current decline down to $3500, and then take more than a year to reach new ATHs (but not 3+ years as would be the case with a correlation to the 2014 - 2015 crypto winter). This is the other possible scenario, but I think it is less likely because 1) the length on the current rise on log chart is not as long as the one to the peak in 20111 thus we need to attain higher ATHs first before correlating to the 2011 peak; and 2) the current fundamentals call for a blowoff top because the ICO mania won’t stop until the regulators stop it (or per my aforementioned wild conjecture that Tether and SegWit theft will destroys the centralized exchanges), which is not soon.
1 Unless we measure from the last bottom in 2015, but in that case the slope is much less steep yet the current decline has been as steep as the 2011 decline from the 2011 peak. Declines in 2013 and 2014 have been becoming less steep as the rate of ascent also has become less steep as adoption has widened. The steepness of the current decline thus must be a bear trap to fake out the weak hands.
EDIT: perhaps I’m so widely read that I’m being quoted by proxy on CNBC:
"We believe after February the market will likely go on a bull run comparative if not greater than last year potentially reaching the trillion-dollar mark before a proper crypto winter sets in where the market becomes more focused on proper market fundamentals," Jamie Burke, CEO at Outlier Ventures, a venture capital firm that focuses on blockchain investments, told CNBC by email on Tuesday.
Note the theory of a “crypto winter” which is a term I popularized. Although the term was used before that, so mostly likely it’s just a coincidence.
EDIT#2: The DJIA has a similar market price chart pattern as BTC since 2016. Armstrong notes the possibility of the “winter” scenario if the DJIA declines below the 2017 year low indicating a global recession to 2020/21 and then the new ATHs coming after 2021 with an ultimate peak in 2032 instead of peaking in 2021.
Clearly we’re in a Panic Cycle year as evident by havoc on the global markets the Trump tax cuts will have. This is causing much uncertainty which I think is what is causing the VIX to go crazy. Also the government shutdown in the USA added to uncertainty over short-term timing of flows.
Rogers predicts the stock market will experience jitters until the Federal Reserve increases borrowing costs.
“I’m very bad in market timing,” Jim Rogers said. “But maybe there will be continued sloppiness until March when they raise interest rates, and it looks like the market will rally.”
But the impending dollar short vortex as now highly boosted by the repatriation of $1 – 2 trillion dollars and profits USA corporations will be able to retain and reinvest, should overwhelm sentiment at some point as it evidently becomes the undeniable reality. My understanding is that the dollar short vortex will send USA dollar and stocks skyrocketing while the rest of the world slows due to the resultant increasing burden of servicing the dollar carry trade debt. Whereas, imports in the USA will become less expensive, thus the USA economy will be booming.
So I see the coming 2020 low for Asia as high for the USA. I will be interested to read the report Armstrong is working on to get his perspective on the matter. If I am incorrect and the USA can also go into recession going into 2020, then perhaps BTC is also going to suffering a crypto winter now. But note BTC has not historically been (negatively nor positively) correlated (0.1 only) to other assets in the general economy, yet appears to have aligned with the DJIA since 2016 in terms of correlated not on the small wiggles but the move from a low to recent peak.
One of Armstrong’s themes has been that the strong dollar killing off the global economy was a prerequisite for monetary crisis reset of the global reserve currency given that the other nations would be very pissed off at the USA’s advantageous position. This would seem to be the perfect setup for Bitcoin taking its role as an independent global reserve when the nations are bickering and can’t come to an agreement on one. So the DJIA and dollar declining into 2020 seems be incompatible with that interpretation and scenario. Also delaying the rush into Bitcoin for another 3 years, would seem to set the timing back in terms of a monetary reset in 2024 allowing Asia to rise to become the financial capital of the world by 2032. That scenario doesn’t seem to corroborate with Armstrong’s general thesis.
EDIT#3: In the most recent private subscription comments, Armstrong reminds of the possibility for a SLINGSHOT move wherein the DJIA could drop below the 2017 low, yet SLINGSHOT back to a high by 2021! Aha, so that’s what I’ve been thinking about Bitcoin that it would crash in a way that shook out all the weak hands but SLINGSHOT back to ATHs quickly and not a drawn out crypto winter. So perhaps we have more downside coming for Bitcoin before bottom. Could we decline further to the ridiculous level of $3500 first?
Electing that tomorrow and there is a risk that this Panic Cycle Year will indeed break last year's low of 19,677.94 before this is over and we can do this all by March.
Keep in mind that 1987 + 31 Years = 2018.
The Dow May Break 19677 Before March
We hope to have this Special Report available this weekend. The price will be $750, but we are dealing with the most crazy period with a Panic Cycle on the Yearly Level. We will still see new high ahead, and this is going to be one heck of a ride.
The potential for an absolute nose-bleed is very high with a slingshot that will confuse everyone.
RE: Are Most Cryptocurrencies Doomed to Collapse — because they’re “ICO-issued”?