I came across an interesting meme earlier that claimed to show that the risks from a measles vaccine statistically hugely outweigh the risks from measles itself. I found this to be possible but was surprised that it was the first time I had heard it said... So I decided to check the figures.
Disclaimer: I am NOT a maths expert! I understand maths and can use fairly complicated forms, but I don't do it very often and so I am fairly likely to make simple mistakes. If you can find a mistake in my calculations, please do let me know!
In short, I grabbed published data from the US government's CDC (center for disease control) regarding vaccines and vaccine injuries. I then did simple calculations to show the chance of any random person having a particular outcome. I calculated the chance of someone having measles and dying from it (or at least not recovering from a serious event) and I calculated the chances of the same but from vaccine related injuries/ilness.
The Data
| Data Point | Data | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Cases of Measles in US in 2010 | 63 | cdc.gov |
| US population in 2010 | 308745538 | wikipedia |
| Chance of measles in 2010 in US | 1 in 4900723 | calc (divide 'cases of measles' by population) |
| Chance of Death Once Measles Present | 1 in 1000 | cdc.gov |
| Chance of Death From Measles in US in 2010 | 1 in 4.9 Billion | calc (Chance of Measles * Chance of Death Once Measles Present) |
| Chance of Severe/Deadly Reaction To Vaccines (inc. Measles Vaccine) | 1 in 1 Million | cdc.gov |
| Chance of Not Recovering From Severe Reaction | 12.98% | cdc VAERS Database |
| Chance of Severe Reaction To Vaccine And Not Recovering | 1 in 7.7 Million | calc (Chance of not recovering * Chance of a Severe Reaction to a Vaccine) |
Results
So we can see that there is a roughly 1 in 5 billion chance of death from measles, but a 1 in 7.7 million chance in potentially fatal results from a measles vaccine. That means that statistically, the risk of serious harm is something like 636 times higher from a measles vaccine than from measles!
Part of me thinks this maths must surely be inaccurate, since the many people that examine such data would surely have already realised this and raised this point publicly.. However, I know there are many facts in this world that deserve to be exposed wide and far but which are not.
Conclusion
I would like others to double check the data and calculations here because the obvious conclusion, if the figures are correct is that the measles vaccine (and probably other vaccines) cannot be justified on these data alone!
Wishing you well,
Ura Soul
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