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In our last post I argued that we could see another 3 wave pattern for BTC
This has so far worked out very well. The first chart is the prediction, the second chart the current price level:
The real question now once again is whether the resistance at this level is high enough to mitigate further upward movement or not. I have so far argued that the chance for a bigger correction is higher than a break out.
Looking more closely I think there could again be a 3 wave push towards the main resistance (the trend line from 2019). As you can see there are now once more further resistances (3 trend lines as well as a general resistance coming from the 50-52k price level.
If we were to break out, prices would go to 60k very quickly and I think a market top would be followed several months after that. But my argument of time still holds. Each macro bull and bear cycle has lengthened compared to the previous one. Extending this logic gives us a market top at the soonest in Summer of 2022. There is simply still too much time for a market run up to happen now.
The fractal of BTC is also clear, it only breaks out of this pattern when it is in the last phase of the bull run, the normal "behavior" is that it corrects at least one more major time downwards. Also, the chart above shows that price has always stayed within this channel before the run up. Going up now without at least going near the 23k area would be unprecedented.
Of course I might be wrong, but I think that it would be at least prudent to not be all in now.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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