Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
Let's do a short to mid term outlook for BTC
I have recently argued that the bull market has shifted to 2022. I expect the market to behave roughly in this fashion:
As you can see bitcoin would then trade between the channel just like in previous cycles before having a true brake out. The "musk rally" would then have been a fake out and without it we would have stayed in this channel. So now that we are back in the middle of it I think we will see further downward momentum.
There is a strong resistance (former support) that has so far rejected upward momentum two times.
I propose two scenarios:
X would see prices rise to 39k and then back to about 36k before going upward to about 40k+. We could then see a break out to the top if there is volume.
Y would see prices decrease 30k and then go up to 32k again. This would be followed by a rejection and a further decline to 28k and below. As we would by then have tested the 30k quite a few times it should be weak enough to fail. This would especially be the case if volume remains low.
I think Y is currently more likely to unfold. If so, we would have a classic ABC correction down to 20-23k
I am very confident that prices would not go lower than that as we have the ATH from 2017 as a support as well as the support line shown in the chart. This would be the last chance for a very favorable entry position in this bull market.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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