Season 2018-2019 Week 8 Results | 26W-16L-04P

This is a weekly overview of my personal handicapping and live betting results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League with some insights on my overall approach.

I managed to get myself in a very hot winning streak where betting pretty much feels like printing money. On my last 147 bets I staked 72.62 units in total and made a +20.48 unit profit which equals +28.2% ROI. Every single pre-game bet that I officially shared and took some extra on in BTC at Nitrogensports also ended up winning going 11W-0L this month on nearly all 2.1+ odds.

I have been through many of these swings while almost being full time involved in sports betting during the past decade and might be able to share some good insights on them. One of the key differences between players that manage to beat the market and those that have a hard time climbing up in stakes is the mental timeframe they operate on. Having a longer term mindset over a short term outcome dependant is of vital importance. These kind of swings are just exactly what they are, they are just swings in the short run mostly because luck has been favorable making the results reach far above what is expected to win. These results over time will inevitably regress to the mean because there will be times with a lot of unfortunate match events that will cause crazy losing streaks.

I am not sure it if is actually needed to experience many of these up and down swings to really understand them and be able to manage them properly or that just understanding them on a cognitive level is enough. One of the big dangers of winning streaks is when you start to believe that you are invincible and that beating these markets is easy. This will most of the time result in laziness that gets someone behind on the bookmakers often initiating a bad run. (the opposite often happens after big losing streaks).

Being emotionally stable is really important if you want to make a living from Sports Betting. It is often said that in gambling that "the lowest lows feel far worse than the highest highs feel good". Winning runs tend to feel normal while losing runs can really get someone down very deep. These emotional swings are part of human nature and will highly sabotage someones success as a sports bettor. If anything, understanding the psychology and knowing how to turn it in your advantage is far more important to beat the sports betting market than the actual picks or predictions you make as crazy as that might sound. I plan on writing an entire article on this subject somewhere next month.

Last week I talked how I wanted / needed to get my average stakes up. I succeeded in this regard increasing the average stake size to ~0.56 units. I am at the point where I would comfortably make a jump up in my stakes but I will to continue doing it slowly for now. Something I still need to work on is my focus when it comes down to the last match on Sunday since that often drops after a long weekend full of betting action.

I'm still active on the SBC Discord Channel sharing many live info updates and bets. I had 2 'official bets' this week with higher odds (1 Lost and 1 Pushed). They both did come close to winning but I'm allready pushing it when it comes down to the current good streak. Live bets have been lagging a bit behind this season mostly because the pre-game bets have been hot and often times I use live bets to set some profit safe or hedge out of spots to reduce the risk and swings.

Live Bets 2018-2019

23/09/2018 Oostende +0 @ 2.16 (1-2 82')
23/09/2018 Eupen vs oostende Over 3.5 @ 2.85 (1-2 82')
15/09/2018 Genk+0 @ 1.71 (82' 1-0) PUSH
15/09/2018 Genk vs Anderlecht O 1.5 @ 2.69 (82' 1-0) LOST
14/09/2018 Club Brugge -2 @ 1.877 (0-1 10') PUSH
01/09/2018 Eupen vs Standard Over 1.5 @ 2.520 (82' 0-1) WON

 Regular Season 2018-2019 Results
 327 Bets| 157W-130L-40P|Staked 164.642u|+20.630u Profit|+12.53% ROI

Let me know in the comments how your betting week was !

Season 2018-2019 Week 8 Results | 26W-16L-04P | +5.790 Units Profit