Some Data about the Whales-No-Voting Experiment and Hard Fork 18

TL;DR

• The "whales-no-voting" experiment brought around 10x increment in minnows' influence if measured in STEEM terms, or more if measured in US Dollar terms
• The HF18 hard fork caused a 99% instant reward drop (100% -> 1%)
• In comparison to pre-HF18 (whales-no-voting) days, current reward level is about 34% if measured in STEEM terms, or 57% if measured in US Dollar terms (STEEM price change: 0.16$ -> 0.27$).
• current reward pool is 95% "full". However, due to historical whale-voting behavior, it will continue growing for some time.

Calculation

reward_or_influence = votes_on_a_post * steem_in_reward_pool / total_votes

In above formula, votes means rshares2 for pre-hf18 and claims for post-hf18.

Assuming the power of your vote on a post is same, or minnows' votes on one of your post/comment is same, the overall reward level is simply affected by two factors: steem_in_reward_pool and total_votes.

• The "whales-no-voting" experiment caused a reduction of total_votes (90% off).
• Hard Fork 18 caused an huge increment of total_votes (100x), because historical whale-voting data has been taken into calculation.
• After hard fork 18, steem_in_reward_pool is increasing, and total_votes is decreasing (because historical whale-voting effect is decaying).

Data

time                  steem_in_reward_pool       total_votes
2017-02-01T15:02:00        56819.750           1261788431405389808835209199627
2017-02-02T15:03:33        56233.483           1316529214924052951514965888973
2017-02-03T15:04:09        50286.287           1136170863576140905958967536549
2017-02-04T15:00:48        52899.481           1102404434903394194409569500724
2017-02-05T15:01:18        55228.627           1077781382662310184067411962694
2017-02-06T15:02:00        57792.702           1214564028013545158145859314275
2017-02-07T15:04:48        58375.545           1341918094540187415020776103542
2017-02-08T15:01:21        53443.979           1115890870509742266905834839339
2017-02-09T15:03:30        53899.879           1070847126472045573466709691994
2017-02-10T15:04:45        58716.215           1207521406478446650043182845734
2017-02-11T15:01:03        55069.884           1057812703506890425180351033287
2017-02-12T15:01:54        54143.501            956616847798151628592551670728
2017-02-13T15:03:06        56002.015           1087455365280925377504618366446
2017-02-14T15:01:30        60148.879           1275271644166695041977832750980
2017-02-15T15:02:54        52738.503           1024865924484120993100735267827
2017-02-16T15:03:48        55369.496           1055268712377795989761051197190
2017-02-17T15:04:24        59896.487           1207273932068361774249457240276
2017-02-18T15:00:06        54773.391           1017252348841898184298913353777
2017-02-19T15:00:42        56281.847            968314504128204562852410865314
2017-02-20T15:00:54        57089.474            897963184765727688868075270319
2017-02-21T15:02:30        59275.278            941158489286529074182226593902
2017-02-22T15:02:54        63050.600           1243497151141761067673111108663
2017-02-23T15:04:45        55898.666            937883362920597847803919491707
2017-02-24T15:02:15        57458.270           1041481831483498848549211395597
2017-02-25T15:03:39        55525.308            910370622524591312461814898558
2017-02-26T15:00:06        54164.727            684518661165075570434619891469
2017-02-27T15:00:57        67563.041           1210186186702038795363990879780
2017-02-28T15:01:09        57581.859           1097983492045684445189359464722
2017-03-01T15:01:27        56634.150            961482168835860627090174687017
2017-03-02T15:01:45        60719.986            928478601673788686765822779122
2017-03-03T15:03:18        65076.370           1021399967026493586990590985216
2017-03-04T15:03:45        55847.295            819822413827653548301888619071
2017-03-05T15:04:57        57157.621            650921405660602145219335295379
2017-03-06T15:01:06        67933.195            924997641464274696040321517960
2017-03-07T15:02:21        65774.635            991976565275018565412880198719
2017-03-08T15:04:24        66927.648           1065863880335394637250372161674
2017-03-09T15:04:45        60948.879            917830761468577838587122401631
2017-03-10T15:00:06        60318.011            796494267501407181836932501663
2017-03-11T15:00:57        58721.777            602233094588622217091027325842
2017-03-12T15:01:33        67652.036            530719165686671877451243153849
2017-03-13T15:03:00        67803.613            325639678646871977556834378309
2017-03-14T15:03:15        91122.448            238644043899002415116604726330
2017-03-15T15:03:45        107963.973           240384197065461510436798454519
2017-03-16T15:00:09        117030.697           156112875013652520913846809969
2017-03-17T15:01:57        113616.232           126431239675113279252549416043
2017-03-18T15:04:18        103238.546           122411399093142377644870707117
2017-03-19T15:00:06        97424.544            117641226806883027649200306918
2017-03-20T15:01:12        95573.053            119037291207753177905497597400
2017-03-21T15:03:24        91154.601            117800844011800882511349342143
2017-03-22T15:04:57        90615.424            125440661544386784134737575821
2017-03-23T15:00:51        83197.264            116109680615293656772288970405
2017-03-24T15:02:51        81836.243            109516686044458500349409442480
2017-03-25T15:03:45        81408.938            109718531091284431942268123345
2017-03-26T15:04:12        83254.838            112214418085445592837197780288
2017-03-27T15:04:24        81920.927            120025205382216766529633422853
2017-03-28T15:01:57        77714.842            124802124943977177629719217479
2017-03-29T15:04:57        76036.170            139178899044213089002495645789
2017-03-30T15:03:03        74878.799          14915691748386387912415541916539
2017-03-31T15:00:42       123116.152          14429398892333989792525578542631
2017-04-01T15:01:15       171687.495          13957692322725086963411928167783
2017-04-02T15:02:12       220208.883          13501204530713554183487017301719
2017-04-03T15:02:24       268716.148          13059596121186450329905750101286
2017-04-04T15:03:03       317153.329          12633451219705984072648706179175
2017-04-05T15:03:24       365033.400          12240885898797308029179499022748
2017-04-06T15:04:51       411131.547          11926867868111336817376277605341
2017-04-07T15:03:18       456828.361          11619934133499022235390289710730
2017-04-08T15:03:42       502141.682          11330121068397165019204175494257
2017-04-09T15:01:06       547877.943          11018228436792157394722300537612
2017-04-10T15:02:12       592082.151          10741882273311545916966123183098
2017-04-11T15:03:42       635706.354          10478011411910113455883626652948
2017-04-12T15:03:24       679044.810          10225248280811526512522423373213
2017-04-13T15:03:42       722503.042           9965543855518616835737829726068
2017-04-14T15:03:48       764747.124           9723865976944547469790454478453
2017-04-15T15:04:09       808243.118           9467925932493713390989167685269
2017-04-16T15:04:54       851168.701           9222626247764974673382281540180
2017-04-17T15:00:24       892075.180           8999177917290938300461132118568
2017-04-18T15:01:09       931511.860           8790903450295846425747200523026
2017-04-19T15:01:45       969681.235           8595393339040190118316360809788
2017-04-20T15:02:24      1007034.625           8409037622883448635151196368050
2017-04-21T15:03:03      1041676.960           8243271618030893430155336894947
2017-04-22T15:04:00      1077788.595           8068409707150247828865716949614
2017-04-23T15:04:45      1114444.385           7888285637070553026923273153732
2017-04-24T15:01:15      1149175.707           7723178597679702109620477529114
2017-04-25T15:02:06      1180032.174           7597890576268680758082645301782
2017-04-26T15:02:51      1208802.055           7472255808717041235795153512658
2017-04-27T15:03:54      1237771.083           7362869927774296097586097716649
2017-04-28T15:00:15      1266533.676           7234016696402507368965358955577
2017-04-29T15:01:24      1297377.002           7093575747737056221134789562002
2017-04-30T15:02:21      1329902.240           6944412934329729396499512877358
2017-05-01T15:03:03      1355082.663           6834397737437013540836641872038
2017-05-02T15:03:57      1379526.863           6726500645924674595067563129977