I have been very quiet for the last months, only posting my weekly witness updates. But being quiet is not equal being inactive.
For those of you who switched on the tv sets a bit later, I'm on this network since October 2016, a continuous witness since February 2017 (with a couple of months hiatus) and, at the moment of writing this, I have more than 10,000 posts written on this blockchain.
I invested in this. Time, knowledge, experience, patience and, by subsidizing my witness nodes for over a year now (after the STEEM price went too low for the server's cost) money. I have an active interest in this project and this is the position from where I'm writing this. I am a stakeholder.
I may not always agree with other witnesses on various topics, but, at the end of the day, in crypto consensus is reached by signing blocks, not by words. As long as my witness node is signing transactions, then we have consensus. We may safely agree to disagree on a lot of minor stuff, as long as we're all committed to drive this in the same direction.
So, here's my position:
1. TRON Foundation and Steemit Inc
This is a partnership between two corporations. They have certain assets (pun intended, for the few who'll get this), certain goals and visions and they may choose at any time to align these goals and visions, and to mix their assets. I am not a stakeholder in Steemit Inc, so I have absolutely nothing to say about this.
2. STEEM Community
On a parallel plane, there is the STEEM community. It is made of witnesses, developers and content creators. Some witnesses and developers are on / from Steemit Inc, many are not. The overwhelming majority of content creators has nothing to do with Steemit Inc. There is a certain overlapping between all these communities, but the main point is that the STEEM community is an actor more complex than the Steemit Inc corporation. I would also dare to say, an actor more powerful, in economical terms, than the Steemit Inc corporation.
3. Potential Scenarios
The partnership announced involves all 3 actors listed above: TRON Foundation, Steemit Inc and STEEM Community. After watching the AMA a couple of hours ago, in which Justin Sun and Ned Scott tried to clear the waters, I confess I'm still confused. No clear path was shown, only general statements. It's true that's still early, but I would expect something more transparent, at this level (both private actors can be evaluated at many tens / hundreds of millions of dollars).
In the absence of a clear statement, I am left with the only option of speculation. So here are the potential scenarios (as much as I can think of, obviously).
3.1 Aggressive Takeover
TRON Foundation will use Steemit Inc stake to tilt the DPOS balance and effectively alter the blockchain, introducing a new token. This token will then be integrated into TRON. At this moment, this looks like the most plausible scenario. In this case, STEEM community - as we know it - ceases to exist, and 100% sure a fork will happen.
3.2 Gradual Takeover
There will be some incentive presented to key witnesses, which will be guaranteed a certain (similar, equal?) stake in the new chain, for the new token swap. It may take anywhere between two weeks and 2-3 months. The outcome will be that the STEEM community will be fragmented, and we will probably see 2-3 smaller forks. This comes second, in terms of probabilities.
3.3 Status Quo
TRON Foundation will leverage the private assets of Steemit Inc, increase development turnover and maintain both chains: TRON and STEEM. A pegged token may exist on TRON (or as a SMT) that will link both assets, but nothing will change in the witness structure. In this case, STEEM community will probably grow, benefiting from attention and support. This comes third, in terms of probabilities.
My Position As A Witness
As a stakeholder, I find the third scenario being the only one in which my interests are protected. Unfortunately, the first two options seem to be favorite now, and the interests of private stakeholders may come first.
If any of the first two scenarios will happen, I will obviously cease to be a de facto stakeholder in the new TRON / Steemit partnership. I will support a fork and accept that I lost time and money for more than 3 years. It's not the first time I'm losing (as an entrepreneur, losing is more common than winning anyway), probably not the last. It has been a tremendous ride, really beneficial for me, in terms of learning, personal development and evolution.
I am writing this to express my support for the third option and I'm curious to see how many other witnesses / stakeholders think the same.
I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua.
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