Into The Black
Earnings season is always a little interesting. I just picked up NTGR yesterday and it gapped up significantly. With my stops adjusted up to preserve profits, I closed out with solid profits when the move lost momentum.
And here we start to see the joys of this strategy. We're only up to 11 closed trades and while the win ratio is still bad because of the initial sampling bias (losing trades close out more quickly), we are already net positive overall!
Trade Journal
I have many more 'paper' entries, but these are the few that happened in an actual trading account. I will talk more about my strategy as time goes on.
Today I Bought
BAX @ 84.93
TROW @ 114.26
Today I Shorted
BA @ 346.74
Today I Closed
NTGR @ 32.36
CHRW @ 83.98
Open Trades
While everything else about an open trade is established at entry, the ‘stop loss’ order will be adjusted periodically over the life of a trade. The idea is to move the stops at key price points and let the profitable trades keep running.
I updated the stops on my open BAX and TROW trades when I put on additional size in both.
| Ticker | Entry | Direction | Size* | Date | Stop Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPM | 25.5141 | Long | 8.43% | 7/17/2019 | 26.30 |
| CLVS | 12.45 | Short | 2.75% | 7/17/2019 | 12.11 |
| GWPH | 161.88 | Short | 4.88% | 7/17/2019 | 169.89 |
| WPM | 25.99 | Long | 8.32% | 7/18/2019 | 26.30 |
| BAX | 82.94 | Long | 14.10% | 7/18/2019 | 83.18 |
| ALNY | 75.44 | Long | 6.04% | 7/18/2019 | 71.71 |
| CLVS | 11.66 | Short | 2.80% | 7/18/2019 | 12.11 |
| PEP | 130.33 | Short | 14.34% | 7/22/2019 | 133.03 |
| EWW | 42.12 | Short | 10.95% | 7/22/2019 | 43.29 |
| CC | 18.61 | Short | 2.45% | 7/23/2019 | 20.19 |
| TROW | 112.14 | Long | 8.84% | 7/24/2019 | 111.30 |
| DUK | 87.44 | Short | 10.92% | 7/24/2019 | 89.29 |
| NUVA | 59.41 | Long | 6.64% | 7/24/2019 | 57.35 |
| MGA | 50.66 | Long | 7.32% | 7/24/2019 | 48.93 |
| AAPL | 208.71 | Long | 9.60% | 7/24/2019 | 203.36 |
| CMI | 174.92 | Long | 9.20% | 7/24/2019 | 169.97 |
| SWKS | 86.95 | Long | 6.86% | 7/24/2019 | 83.85 |
| BAX | 84.93 | Long | 10.53% | 7/25/2019 | 83.18 |
| BA | 346.74 | Short | 5.86% | 7/25/2019 | 359.25 |
| TROW | 114.26 | Long | 8.37% | 7/25/2019 | 111.30 |
Total Long 104.25%
Total Short 54.95%
Approximate position sizes are given as a percentage of trading account. Position sizing is based on perceived risk; effective Risk Management is critical to my strategy. Use of leverage is intended, so % of portfolio will sometimes exceed 100%
Closed Trades
| Ticker | Gain/Loss | Size | Portfolio % | Days Held | Opened | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSX | -2.72% | 10.52% | -0.29% | 0 | 7/17/2019 | 7/17/2019 |
| EBAY | -2.54% | 11.97% | -0.30% | 0 | 7/18/2019 | 7/18/2019 |
| ADM | -2.52% | 12.69% | -0.32% | 1 | 7/18/2019 | 7/19/2019 |
| CSX | -3.90% | 8.36% | -0.33% | 1 | 7/18/2019 | 7/19/2019 |
| THRM | -5.28% | 7.68% | -0.41% | 1 | 7/18/2019 | 7/19/2019 |
| PCAR | -1.25% | 10.31% | -0.13% | 5 | 7/18/2019 | 7/23/2019 |
| PCAR | -3.32% | 11.45% | -0.38% | 0 | 7/23/2019 | 7/23/2019 |
| EPR | -2.55% | 12.42% | -0.32% | 1 | 7/22/2019 | 7/23/2019 |
| EW | 8.51% | 11.75% | 1.00% | 2 | 7/22/2019 | 7/24/2019 |
| EW | -2.47% | 10.02% | -0.25% | 0 | 7/24/2019 | 7/24/2019 |
| NTGR | 18.02% | 6.49% | 1.17% | 1 | 7/24/2019 | 7/25/2019 |
| NTGR | 13.90% | 6.72% | 0.93% | 1 | 7/24/2019 | 7/25/2019 |
| CHRW | -2.88% | 8.52% | -0.25% | 1 | 7/24/2019 | 7/25/2019 |
Wins: 3 trades, 3.10% total gain
Losses: 10 trades, -2.96% total loss
Win Ratio: 23.08% of total trades
Net Gain: 0.14%
Gain/Loss given as percentage on notional value of trade, with size a percentage of trading account. G/L x Size = % change of account value based on trade outcome. Days Held shows as 0 when a position was opened and closed in the same day (day trade).
Evaluating all position outcomes from Closed Trades, over a large enough sample, could support an approximate calculation of total portfolio return. Actual results may vary.
This is my trading journal. Results are published for entertainment purposes. This is not financial advice. This is not legal advice. This is not even advice.
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