[Study] 1000+ Steem Monster Packs Statistics [Spreadsheet with Proof of Work] Part 1
Hello everyone, today I want to share the results of my 1000+ Steem monsters Pack opening study.
What I decided to do was to analyze Pack Openings from Dlive Livestreams between June 1st and June 4th and to determine what kinds of chances you actually have to get something good when opening @steemmonsters packs.
In total, I collected data from 1000 packs and put them in a spreadsheet to find out the odds for everyone who is interested to play, trade, collect or sell packs and cards.
It took me a while to get this data together, hope you like this idea behind this study.
1. Important Criteria
I only recorded data from Livestreams with at least 10+ packs being opened, to remove the distortion effect from single packs.
This was important to be sure that they weren't only uploaded because they got a rare card.
The main source was Dlive with over 98% proportion.
There was one exception the last 9 packs I had to open offline because I couldn't find more openings with the criteria mentioned above- and the goal was to get data from 1000 packs (and to start my collection) .
You can find all sources in my spreadsheet at the end of this post.
2. Distribution of 5000 cards
[Attention: you will find odds per Pack in the next table under No.3, this statistic shows ONLY the Distribution if you would own 5000 cards]
| RARITY | Quantity | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Total cards | 5000 | 100% |
| Common(grey) | 3418 | 68.36% |
| Rare (blue) | 1232 | 24.64 % |
| Epic (purple) | 281 | 5.62 % |
| Legendary(gold) | 69 | 1.38% |
3. The most important Odds + probability in % per Pack
| Type of Pack | X times from 1000 sample size | Odds in % for each pack | average amount of packs you you need to open |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Rare+4 commons (worst pack) | 443 | 44.3 % | 2.25 |
| at least 1 Epic | 261 | 26.1 % | 3.85 |
| at least 1 Legendary (any combination) | 69 | 6.9 % | 14.50 |
| at least 2 Epics | 17 | 1.7 % | 58.80 |
| at least 2 Legendaries | 0 | < 0.1 % | a lot |
| 1 Legendary + at least 1 Rare | 31 | 3.1 % | 32.25 |
| 1 Legendary + at least 1 Epic | 12 | 1.2 % | 83.30 |
| 1 Lgendary + 2 Rare | 9 | 0.9 % | 111.00 |
| 1 legendary + 4 commons | 21 | 2.1 % | 47.60 |
4. First conclusion
In each pack, you will find always 5 cards.
One of them is always at least better than „common“.
Worst Pack you can get is a set of 4 common and one rare card.
On average you need to open 14.5 packs to get 1 Legendary Card.
Every 4th pack should contain an epic card.
And most likely every 2nd pack (44.3%) will be the worst possible pack [4 commons+1 rare]
The interesting thing is that it seems to be more likely to get 1 Legendary with a 1 rare card than „just“ 1 Legendary card (with 4 commons).
Another statistic says that once you have an Epic card on your screen the chance to get a legend in this pack is around 1.2%.
5. More Interesting odds [sorted by different types of pack combinations].
| Type of Pack | X times from 1000 sample | Odds in % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Rare (worst pack) | 443 | 44.3 % |
| at least 1 Legendary (any combination) | 69 | 6.9 % |
| 1 Rare + 1 Epic | 67 | 6.7 % |
| 1 Rare + 2 Epic | 6 | 0,6 % |
| 1 Rare + 3 Epic | 1 | 0.1 % |
| 2 Rares | 177 | 17.7 % |
| 2 Rares + 1 Epic | 39 | 3.9 % |
| 2 Rares + 2 Epics | 2 | 0.2 % |
| 3 Rares | 55 | 5.5 % |
| 3 Rare + 1 Epic | 11 | 1.1 % |
| 4 Rares | 6 | 0.6 % |
| 5 Rares | 1 | 0.1 % |
| at least 1 Epic | 261 | 26.1 % |
| at least 2 Epics | 17 | 1.7 % |
| 3 Epics | 3 | 0.3 % |
| 3 Epics + 1 Rare | 1 | 0.1 % |
| 4 Epics | 0 | < 0.1 % |
| 5 Epics | 0 | < 0.1 % |
More data need to be collected to get more accurate results.
6. Sources | Spreadsheet with Proof of Work
You can find all sources in my spreadsheet. Klick on picture or link here
Example: user [X] pulled on Stream [Livestream Name+ Platform] at Minute a Legendary card Named [x]
For the moment you are able to read the Excel document online [read Access]; use filter options to play around with it
https://steemmonsters.com
If you have spare cards feel free to send them to @tzap90 😃
Thx for reading! good luck with your packs!
Comment ; Upvote ; Resteem if you like this post
05/06/2018
@tzap90