Week 11 Results | 08W-11L-04P | -2.510 Units Loss

This is a weekly overview of my personal handicapping and live betting results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League with some insights on my overall approach.

I have been running extremely hot last month and the regression to the mean started kicking in as expected. Mostly the pre-game bets all lost. Some of them deserved while others very unfortunate (Zulte-Waregem). Live betting still went quite fine and the downards correction is still very limited overall. (Betting can get ugly on the way down). I also continued to increase my stakes a bit and have increased them by 20% compared to how I started the season. The average bet as a result increased to around 0.6 units. I will hold this for a while even though I have quite some room to move up more right now.

One of the things that is noticable right now is that the market is really sharpened up and edges are harder to find comparing things to a month ago. Especially in live betting it is getting increasingly harder to hit target odds and they are most of the time adjusted to the situation. For now I will not be making any kind of adjustements and just continue the way I have been going about things just skipping on the bets where the market is adjusted.

Every week I share quite some of my live bets on our SBC Discord Channel. aside from the bigger bets that I post in a different format, these bets are more about information instead of there to actually being followed. I take these at different stake sizes but will always post them as flat. If it's not worth a small flat bet I won't post it. I have been settling all live bets properly in discord and also post them here each week. It should not take that long to make a post with overall resulst the next time there is an international break.

League Matches Discord Live-Bets

Waasland +2.25 @ 1.87 WON
Moeskroen 1H +0.25 @ 1.93 (0-0 16') HALF WON
Antwerp vs Lokeren 1H under 1 @ 2.206 PUSH
Antwerp vs Lokeren 1H Over 0.75 @ 2.04 (16' 0-0) HALF WON
Kortrijk +0 @ 1.81 (2-1 82') Rejected
Kortrijk vs Stvv Over 3.5 @ 2.62 (2-1 82') WON
Genk -0.5 @ 2.16 (2-0 72') LOST
Genk ve Eupen Over 3.5 @ 2.39 ( 82' 2-1) LOST
AA Gent 1st Half +0 @ 1.84 (35' 0-1) WON
Oostende +0.25 @·1.99 ( 5' 0-0) LOST
AA Gent +0 @ 1.74 (0-3 85') WON

I'm still running far above the results that can be expected in the longer run. There is no wat to tell where it will go the next couple weeks though. I just look at it one match at a time and see where the ship strands in the end without caring too much about these short term swings.

 Regular Season 2018-2019 Results
 453 Bets| 208W-187L-58P|Staked 238.816u|+19.536u Profit|+8.18% ROI

Let me know in the comments how your betting week was !