Week 27 Results | 16W-16L-05P | -0.049 Units Loss

This is a weekly overview of my personal handicapping and live betting results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League with some insights on my overall approach.

Week 27 in the regular season was about break even with a tiny -0.049 unit loss going exactly the same 16W-16L-0.5P as week 26. The main difference is that I managed to increase my average stake by +11% which was one of the objectives I wrote about in last weeks results post. I can't point out that many things I did wrong and it was one of those weeks where unforeseen late player injuries along with things like lucky goals out of nowhere along with missed penalties did not help the overall result.

One thing is for sure and that is that the Betting markets continue to get sharper year by year to the point where the lines that are being set almost feel like an exact science. I'm confident enough that I'm still beating it but do feel I need to step things up right now not to lose my edge as the markets get sharper. One of the things about sports betting is that work put in now tend to only be rewarded later on. Situational betting spots that worked in the past are not guaranteed to work forever and it is really important to continue evolving by finding new ways to read the betting markets. I still have my hopes set on crypto being able to provide extremely low juice odds one day but it's lot looking like that will happen any time soon. Betscorum in this regard has huge potential which nearly everyone agrees upon. Yet everything seems to be done to chase away the sports bettors from the platform leaving the exchange as a complete ghost town right now. I really hate the fact that nothing whatsoever is done to make use of the first movers advantage.

Anyway, the bet I had fading Racing Genk on Antwerp +0.5 @ 2.529 (See Preview) on Nitrogensports (Betslip) was a really good example on how it's possible to get a real edge on the market. The odds closed at 2.17 which was a far more accurate number. If a team plays a match while there are odds available already on their next match, it can be used a big source of info that is not yet calculated into the odds from that next match yet. This was exactly the case for Racing Genk who clearly suffered from the entire Pozzuelo soap. These plays are rather rare though and they ask for quick anticipations since the odds usually don't stay intact for long

The bigger shared live bets on the SBC Discord Server continue to do quite good. It's been a while since I made my last live betting record update on these plays (Post 2 months ago) and I will likely make another one later this week. Last time I was at 132 Bets | +5.024 Units Profit | +3.8% ROI. Ever since I put up a lot of live bets extra and I'm looking forward to running the numbers.

Discord Live-Bets

Zulte-Waregem +0.25 @ 1.89 (11" 1-0) WON
Lokeren 1st Half +0.25 @ 1.99 (0-0 7') HALF WON
Moeskroen -0.25 @ 2.00 (60' 1-0) HALF LOST
Club Brugge 1H +0 @ 2.07 ( 21' 0-1) LOST
Genk vs Antwerp 1H Under 1 @ 1.97 (7' 0-0) WON
Sint-Truiden +0 @ 2.01 (51' 2-1) WON

I still have not managed to get back to the expected profit line, but I'm glad to see the trend is actually moving up again after a long slow downswing.

 Regular Season 2018-2019 Results
 997 Bets| 446W-419L-132P|Staked 501.940u|+13.857u Profit|+2.76% ROI

Let me know in the comments how your betting week was !